“In Q4’12, China is set to dominate both PV (photovoltaic) module supply and market demand for the first time ever,” industry watcher Solarbuzz said. And it added that other Asia-Pacific nations will see growth, including India, Australia and perhaps most significantly Japan. There, a new, generous feed-in tariff is expected to grow the market significantly.
As for where the United States stands in this, it installed 1.9 GW in 2011, and the Solar Energy Industries Association expects about 2.8 GW to go in this year.
Meanwhile, at the behest of several solar manufacturers, the U.S. is moving toward finalizing duties on Chinese PV imports. One nugget from IMS highlighted exactly why: the firm said China’s crystalline PV module capacity hit 32.6 GW in the first quarter of this year, outstripping the forecast of 30.6 GW for 2012 global installations.
“Although the outlook for PV demand in China is positive, price erosion is set to continue in 2012 as overcapacity still exists in the polysilicon, wafer, cell and module supply chain,” the firm said.
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